So we have The List, and The List represents the major (football) college sports world as it existed right before everything changed. For the most part, school revenue is reported through June 30, 2011 – the last day of the old order. And since conference moves are all about increasing revenue, we have to assume the dynamic of revenue by conference will change considerably starting with the 2011-2012 reporting year.
But let’s see what this new world looks like with the old world’s revenue. If the changes that began last summer and will continue for the next couple of seasons (everything that’s known to be happening, like Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC even if it’s not in effect yet) are accounted for, here’s what the buckets of revenue would look like by conference:
New Alignment Total Revenue (2010-2011 Revenue)
SEC – $1,190,948,023
Big Ten – $1,050,478,881
ACC – $860,547,975
Pac-12 – $746,349,570
Big 12 – $737,535,914
New Alignment Average Revenue (2010-2011 Revenue)
Big Ten – $87,539,907
SEC – $85,067,716
Big 12 – $73,753,591
Pac-12 – $62,195,798
ACC – $61,467,713
Not considering what realignment will do for conference TV money (which of course is dumb because it’s all about conference TV money – we just can’t quantify that yet), it’s interesting to look at what the changes do to conference revenue. All of the major conferences except the Big 12 are ending up with more members than they had before, so obviously total conference revenue goes up. But average revenue per team sees some interesting changes.
The Big Ten bringing on Nebraska hardly moves the average revenue needle at all. The Huskers are a solid Top 25 revenue program and slide right in to the middle of the conference’s revenue list. Nebraska’s 2010-2011 revenue would have put them No. 6 in the Big Ten, thus the average revenue change if we factor them in is just a $351,000 reduction, or down 0.4%. Average revenue for Big Ten schools will just go up with the addition of the conference title game and those precious cable carriage fees, so we could look at Nebraska as a low-risk, high-reward investment.
By contrast, average SEC revenue falls $3.8 million, or 4.3%, when you factor in the addition of Texas A&M and Missouri. Neither school is a revenue powerhouse, and in the SEC they would rank No. 10 and 11 out of 14 teams. Mike Slive really needs to have some magic up his sleeve if this expansion is going to be a big revenue booster. Expanding to 14 teams doesn’t get you much unless it cracks open those CBS and ESPN contracts. High-risk investment for unknown reward.
The Pac-12 also sees a big drop in average revenue with the addition of Colorado and Utah. Those schools, which would rank No. 7 and 12 in the conference, drive average revenue down $2.7 million, or 4.2%. But we know Larry Scott’s strategy and know it seems to be working. High-risk investment for high reward. And, honestly, when your marquee schools can’t crack the Top 20 in revenue, the risk of radical change might be less than the risk of the status quo.
The ACC sees average revenue drop $1.3 million, or 2%, with the addition of Pittsburgh and Syracuse. But that conference, in expanding to 14 teams without really boosting its football credibility, is playing a different game. The ACC’s biggest risk might have been the potential to be picked apart by expansion elsewhere, so it’s been in preemptive survival mode.
And in the Big 12, bringing in West Virginia and TCU to replace Texas A&M and Missouri is a surprisingly balanced shift. Those changes only drop average revenue by $439,000, or 0.6%. West Virginia and TCU would rank No. 7 and 8 in the conference, and they replace schools ranked No. 6 and 8. Of course, when your top two teams make up 30% of your revenue, shifts elsewhere don’t have a dramatic impact. The Big 12′s game was called survival, and maybe against all odds the conference has come out OK.
And there you have the stage as its set for the new world. For the Big Ten and Pac-12, there’s a strong assumption that these moves will mean increased revenue for the conference and its schools. The Big 12 and ACC have survived, and we’ll see where they go from here. And for the SEC, the big question is how to make a 14-team conference without blockbuster additions stronger than the 12-team powerhouse that was already atop the college sports world. That’ll be an interesting thing to watch.
———–
Previously
- College Sports Revenue 2011: The List
- College Sports Revenue 2011: Auburn closes the Bama gap
- College Sports Revenue 2011: Michigan Money
- College Sports Revenue 2011: The Longhorns’ Big Bucks
- College Sports Revenue 2011: Setting The Stage
———–
